Microsoft’s gaming executives predicted in a May 2022 presentation that the company’s gaming growth would largely come from advertising and mobile purchases over the next several years. The presentation, inadvertently published on a court website as part of Microsoft’s battle against the Federal Trade Commission over the pending Activision Blizzard acquisition, revealed the company’s gaming revenue doubling to $36 billion by the 2030 fiscal year, compared to a forecasted $18 billion for 2022. The document did not mention the $68.7 billion Activision deal announced earlier. Microsoft plans to release a new Xbox console in 2028, following the Xbox Series X and Series S, which debuted in 2020.
The growth outlined in the presentation involves several categories:
Advertising: Microsoft expects advertising revenue to increase from about $100 million in fiscal 2022 to $1.4 billion in fiscal 2030. The company collaborates with Yahoo to sell display ads for Xbox consoles.
Mobile Transactions: Revenue from mobile transactions is anticipated to reach $2.6 billion in fiscal 2030, compared to none in fiscal 2022. This growth is likely influenced by Activision Blizzard’s mobile game subsidiary, King Digital Entertainment, known for the Candy Crush franchise.
Subscription Services: The acquisition of Activision Blizzard is expected to lead to expanded sales of transactions across consoles and PCs, potentially attracting more subscribers to Microsoft’s Game Pass library. Growth in these categories is factored into the fiscal 2030 forecast.
While the leaked information provides insights into Microsoft’s gaming strategy, the company did not comment on the situation. Completing the Activision deal would significantly impact Microsoft’s gaming revenue and could help achieve the outlined growth targets. The company is aiming to finalize the acquisition by October 18, with the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority evaluating a proposal that involves divesting cloud streaming rights to Activision games to Ubisoft.
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